Ikibazo cyo kumenya niba perezida w’u Burundi Pierre Nkurunziza afite uburenganzira bwo kwiyamamariza manda ya gatatu mu matora ateganyijwe muri icyo gihugu mu kwezi kwa Kamena, cyakuruye ubushyamirane bukaze mu gihugu, kuburyo umubare w’impunzi z’abarundi zerekeza mu bihugu bihana imbibi n’u Burundi ugenda wiyongera buri munsi. Icyo kibazo kandi cyashoboye gucamo ibice bibiri bishyamiranye bigize ishyaka CNDD FDD riri kubutegetsi.
 
Umushakashatsi Filip Reyntjens aratugezaho isesengura ry’uko ibintu bishobora kugenda i Burundi.Mbere y’uko nibanda ku bintu bishobora gushyikira u Burundi mu gihe cya vuba, reka mvuge muri make ku kibazo cy’itegeko nshinga. Ingingo ebyiri z’itegeko nshinga ryo mu mwaka w’2005 nizo zirebwa cyane n’iki kibazo. Ingingo ya 96 ivuga ko « perezida wa Repubulika atorwa n’abaturage bose mu buryo butaziguye mu gihe kingana na manda igizwe n’imyaka itanu ishobora kongerwa rimwe gusa ». Ingingo ya 302 iri mu gice cyiswe « amabwiriza yihariye areba igihe cya mbere gikurikira inzibacyuho » igira iti : « Mu buryo budasanzwe, perezida wa mbere wa repubulika nyuma y’inzibacyuho azatorwa n’inteko ishingamategeko iteranye n’umutwe wa sena, bose bateraniye hamwe bakitwa inama nkuru y’igihugu (congrès), uwatowe akaba agomba kugira ubwiganze bw’amajwi ya 2/3 by’abari muri iyo nama bose ».
 
Abashyigikiye ko Nkurunziza akora manda yagatatu basobanura ko manda ya mbere yo mu mwaka w’2005-2010 idashobora kubarwa bitewe n’uko muri iyo manda ya mbere Nkurunziza atatowe n’abaturage bose kuburyo butaziguye mu mwaka w’2005. Bityo manda yo mu mwaka w’2015-2020 akaba ari manda ya kabiri aho kuba iya gatatu. Nubwo abashyigikiye manda ya gatatu ubona bajijinganya ku itegeko nshinga ; ibisobanuro byabo ntibifata kubera impamvu ebyiri, tutiriwe tureba icyo amasezerano y’amahoro y’Arusha yo mu mwaka w’2000 avuga nk’uko bamwe bakunda kubikora : Icya mbere ni uko ingingo ya 302 yakoreshejwe mu buryo bw’igihe gito cyo mu mwaka w’2005-2010. Ntabwo iyo ngingo muri iki gihe ishobora kwitabazwa kuko itajyanye n’igihe tugezemo ; impamvu ya kabiri yo yumvikana cyane : Mu gihe ingingo ya 96 isobanura umubare wa manda ntarengwa, ingingo ya 302 isobanura uko amatora ya manda ya mbere yo mu 2005 agomba gukorwa. Ntabwo iyo ngingo ireba andi matora ya perezida yagombaga gukurikiraho cyane cyane ku mubare wa manda. Reka tugire icyo tubaza twirengagije ibyo byose : Niba uburyo bw’amatora bushobora kuba bwarahinduwe, ese ibyo bisobanura ko Nkurunziza ashobora kwiyamamariza indi manda?
 
Reka mvuge isesengura kubintu biri kuvugwa cyane bishobora kuba mu Burundi bikaba byaganisha igihugu ahantu heza cyangwa se habi ndetse bikaba byakurura amakuba akomeye cyane. Ibintu ngiye kuvuga ni nko gutanga integuza yo kwerekana ko mu bihe bya vuba, u Burundi bushobora kuba agapfunyika ka kabutindi, gashobora kubyara amahano yakwira akarere kose.
 
Icya mbere : Ishyaka CNDD FDD rishobora gutanga undi mukandida utari Nkurunziza. Iryo shyaka rifite abayoboke benshi kandi bafite ubushobozi bwatuma baba abakuru b’igihugu beza (hashobora no kuba harimo abandi bantu bataba abakandida beza cyane, abo Nkurunziza ashobora kubakoresha nk’uko Putin na Medvedev mu Burusiya babigenje). N’ubwo ishyaka CNDD FDD ryagaragayemo imiyoborere itari myiza no gucikamo ibice kw’abariyoboye bitewe n’ikibazo cya manda ya gatatu,iryo shyaka riracyakunzwe n’abarundi benshi, umukandida ryatanga yahita abona amajwi atuma atsinda amatora n’ubwo ayo matora yaba yanyuze mu mucyo na demokarasi isesuye hatabayemo ubujura bwo kwiba amajwi. Nkuko itegeko nshinga ribiteganya, icyo gihe Nkurunziza yaba umusenateri ubuzima bwe bwose, agakomeza kuba umuntu wubashywe mu gihugu no hanze yacyo bitewe n’icyemezo yaba yarafashe cyuzuye ubushishozi cyo kutigundiriza kubutegetsi agahitamo inyungu z’igihugu. Mu gihe undi mukandida yaba yemejwe byumvikanyweho na bose, ishyaka CNDD FDD ryakongera kwiyunga, rigakomeza kuba ishyaka rya mbere rikomeye kandi ryemerwa na bose mu gihugu.
 
Icya kabiri : Ishyaka CNDD FDD rishobora gutanga Nkurunziza ho umukandida. Icyo gihe byasaba inzego z’igihugu zibifitiye ububasha (Komisiyo ishinzwe amatora n’urukiko rushinzwe kurinda itegeko nshinga) kwemeza niba kwiyamamaza kwe kubahirije amategeko, birumvikana ko icyemezo cyafatwa n’izo nzego kitavuguruza icyifuzo cya Nkurunziza kiretse habayeho igitangaza cy’uko izo nzego zashobora kugaragaza ubwisanzure budasanzwe mugufata ibyemezo. Amashyaka atavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi buriho, itangazamakuru, imiryango itegamiye kuri leta na kiliziya gatolika byahita byamagana ukwiyamamaza kwa Nkurunziza. Imyigaragambyo ikaba mu mujyi wa Bujumbura no muyindi mijyi. Muri icyo gihe abigaragambya benshi batabwa muri yombi abandi bakicwa.
 
Umuryango mpuzamahanga ukamagana ibiri kuba ndetse ugatera ubwoba bwo gufatira ubutegetsi buriho ibihano. Nyamara hejuru y’ibyo byose amatora ashobora kuba kandi akaba mu buryo buboneye, Nkurunziza akayatsinda. Icyo gihe ubutegetsi bwaburizamo imyigaragambyo yose, ubutegetsi bugakoresha igitugu gikomeye kandi byose bukabikora nkaho ntakintu cyabaye. Umunaniro w’abigaragambya no gushyirwaho igitugu n’ubutegetsi bigatuma abarwanya ubutegetsi bari imbere mu gihugu batsindwa bagaceceka, noneho umuryango mpuzamahanga nawo ugatangira gufungurira buhoro buhoro u Burundi imfashanyo wari warahagaritse. Icyo gihe ishyaka CNDD FDD ryakomeza gucikamo ibice bibiri.
 
Icya gatatu : Ukwiyamamaza kwa Nkurunziza gushobora kwamaganwa ku buryo bukomeye. Icyo gihe umubare munini w’abigaragambywa mu mijyi myinshi bakicwa kandi abanyepolitiki barwanya ubutegetsi bwa Nkurunziza bari muri iyo mijyi bakibasirwa cyane n’urubyiruko rw’ishyaka rya CNDD FDD rwitwa « Imbonerakure » kimwe n’abahoze ari abarwanyi biryo shyaka. Ibice byavutse muri CNDD FDD byahangana kuburyo bukomeye mu ntambara ikomeye cyane. Abapolisi bagashyigikira Nkurunziza, ariko abasilikare b’igihugu bagacikamo ibice bibiri. Ibice by’abasilikare bashyigikiye n’abarwanya Nkurunziza mu mitwe inyuranye y’ingabo byatangira kurasana. Abanyepolitiki batavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi kimwe n’abaturage basanzwe bagahunga igihugu cyangwa se bakajya gukora intambara y’inyeshyamba. Igihugu cyigahinduka akajagari, amatora ntashobore kuba agasubikwa kugeza igihe kitazwi.
 
Icya kane : Abayobozi bahoze ari ab’ishyaka CNDD FDD, kimwe n’abarwanyije kwiyamamaza kwa Nkurunziza hiyongereyeho abayoboye ishyaka CNDD FDD nka Hussein Radjabu bafatanyije na FNL igice cya RWASA, icyo gihe bashobora gutangiza intambara y’inyeshyamba zirwanya ubutegetsi. Bagatangira bafata intwaro zashyizwe mu bubiko mu gikorwa cya DDR (gusubiza abasilikare mu buzima busanzwe) bagatangira kurwanya ishyaka rya CNDD FDD rya Nkurunziza kimwe n’abapolisi n’abasilikare bamushyigikiye. Imirwano yahita yihuta cyane hagati y’imitwe yitwaje intwaro irwanya ubutegetsi kugira ngo yigarurira ibice byinshi by’igihugu. Impunzi z’abarundi zakomeza kuba nyinshi mu bihugu byo hanze, abandi baturage bari imbere mu gihugu bakava mu byabo kubera imirwano kandi ntibashobore kubona ubufasha.
 
Icya gatanu :Imitwe yitwaje intwaro iri mu gihugu cya Congo (RDC) nayo ishobora kwinjira muri iyo mirwano. Iyo mitwe yakwambuka ikibaya cya Rusizi, ikagaba ibitero mu Cibitoke na Bubanza igakomeza yerekeza i Bujumbura. Abarwanyi b’abanyarwanda ba FDLR nabo ntibatangwa muri ako kajagari kaba kavutse i Burundi, bakagaba ibitero ku gihugu cy’u Rwanda, bahereye mu birindiro baba bamaze gushinga mu majyaruguru y’uburengerazubwa bw’igihugu cy’u Burundi. Muri iki gihe amakuru azwi, yaba ari impamo cyangwa atariyo, ni uko umubare munini w’abatutsi i Burundi wibasiwe.
 
Mu gushyira mu bikorwa ibyo yatangaje mu mezi yashize, Kagame azatanga itegeko ku ngabo z’u Rwanda ryo gutabara mu Burundi kugira ngo zihagarike ako kajagari nk’uko Kigali ibyita. Ingabo z’u Rwanda zizahita zigaba igitero ku gihugu cy’u Burundi mu « gikorwa cyitwa ubutabazi » (opération humanitaire) kizaba kigamije kuburizamo jenoside. Icyo gihe u Rwanda ruzavuga ko rwohereje ingabo mu gihe gito zo kugarura amahoro i Burundi. Icyo gihe impunzi n’abavuye mu byabo bazagoterwa hagati mu mirwano n’imitwe myinshi izaba irwana mu buryo bw’urujijo rwinshi kuko nta mutwe uzaba ufite ahantu hazwi ugenzura cyangwa ngo habe hari agace kari kuberamo imirwano kazwi.
 
Icya gatandatu : intambara y’inyeshyamba izagera no kubutaka bwa Congo, ari ingabo za Congo, ari ingabo za ONU zizwi ku izina rya « monusco » nta numwe uzaba ashobora kugenzura uko ibintu byifashe. Imitwe myinshi yitwaje intwaro iri muri ako karere kimwe niyasiziriye muri iki gihe izahaguruka ifate intwaro ikore igikorwa cyo « kwirindira umutekano » muri Kivu y’amajyepfo. Iyo mitwe izashyiraho uturere yigengamo kandi tutagenzurwa na leta  ya Congo. Ako kajagari kazafata n’intara ya Kivu y’amajyaruguru aho umutwe wa M23 uzongera kuzuka ushyigikiwe ku mugaragaro cyangwa se bya rwihishwa na leta y’u Rwanda. Ni gutyo ikibazo cy’u Burundi kizahinduka intambara y’akarere kose izafata ibihugu bitatu ikongera guhitana amamiliyoni y’inzirakarengane nk’uko byagenze mubihe byashize.
 
Birumvikana ko ibi bintu byose bidashobora kugenda nk’uko mbivuze, birerekana ahubwo ibitekerezo n’indoto za politiki, mukaba mugomba kubifata mu buryo bwo kuvuga muri ese bigenze gutya…,ibitekerezo nk’ibi ni gake bishobora guhura n’ukuri nyako uretse igitekerezo cya mbere, icya kabiri wenda n’icya gatatu bishobora gushushanya ukuri nyako. Ibyo biterwa n’ibyemezo bishobora gufatwa n’abo bireba babitewe no gushakisha igisubizo cy’ibintu bibabangamiye cyangwa bitewe n’aho ibihe biba bigeze. Niyo mpamvu iyi nyandiko yanjye ari iyo gukangurira abantu ibyago bishobora kubagwirira. Ibyo byago bikazatangira kwigaragaza umunsi Nkurunziza yafashe icyemezo cyo kwiyamamariza manda ya gatatu yo kuba umukuru w’igihugu. Aho niho umurongo utukura uherereye.
 
Umuryango mpuzamahanga n’ibihugu byo mu karere bigomba kugaragaza kuburyo busobanutse neza ko iyo manda itemewe kandi ko nibigenda gutyo hazafatwa ibihano bikarishye cyane kuri Nkurunziza n’abamushyigikiye bari gukora ibikorwa biganisha ku rupfu. Ibyo bihano ntibigomba gufatirwa gusa abari kubutegetsi, bigomba no gufatirwa abarwanya ubutegetsi bazakoresha inzira zitemewe kandi mbi zishobora gukurura ubushyamirane n’imvururu. Ibikorwa byo guhuza abashyamiranye nibyo bigomba gufata umwanya wa mbere, hagakurikiraho ibyemezo byibasira abantu ku giti cyabo nko kubima impushya zo gutembera mu bihugu byo hanze no gufunga amakoti bafite mu mabanki yo hanze ndetse n’urukiko mpuzamahanga mpanabyaha rukabihaniza. Kumenyesha abantu bose bafite uruhare mu bikorwa binyuranye ko bazakurikiranwa n’ubutabera nk’uko byagenze mu gihe gishizemuri Repubulika ya Centrafrica.
 
Professeur Filip Reyntjens